Appreciate the offers but I might be OK. I took the carrier to a speed shop and let them pound on it. It was funny listening while waiting: tink, tink, tink followed by bam, bam, bam, followed by the pshsssss of a torch, more banging and the whir of an air wheel. Big ups to Rainier Honda & Yamaha.
Next up: Getting the bearing spacer off the axle. Then - hopefully - it will just be a matter of throwing the Pivot Works kit in the freezer for a while, putting the carrier on a hotplate and buttoning everything back up. Stay tuned.